You are the IFRS 9 specialist at Brightline Bank.
Brightline has a $10m corporate loan to Orion Logistics. At origination Orion was investment grade. Six months in, Orion's revenue fell 25% after losing a key contract, its credit rating was downgraded two notches, and it is 35 days past due on a coupon. Probability of default over 12 months is now 4%; lifetime PD is 18%. Loss given default is 45%.
Stage 1 = no significant increase in credit risk (SICR). Stage 2 = SICR but not credit-impaired. Stage 3 = credit-impaired.